Why Brendan Caldwell Likes Cboe, Amazon, and Costco Right Now
Why Brendan Caldwell is doubling down on Cboe, Amazon, and Costco despite market volatility
Brendan Caldwell, President and CEO of Caldwell Investment Management, has never shied away from bold calls in uncertain markets. On April 3, 2025, he shared his latest outlook on North American large caps and spotlighted three stocks that stand out in this evolving economic climate: Cboe Global Markets, Amazon, and Costco. His insights arrive as markets digest two years of extraordinary equity gains, cooling macro data, and renewed geopolitical tensions under a second Trump administration.
Market Overview: A Two-Year Bull Run Meets Reality
Caldwell highlighted the strength of equity markets over the past two years, particularly in the United States. The S&P 500 posted consecutive annual gains of about 25 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In contrast, the Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index lagged behind, delivering roughly eight percent in 2023 and 18 percent in 2024.
This divergence, according to Caldwell, was driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pivot to rate cuts and a political landscape that emboldened business activity. With Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024, expectations for tax cuts, deregulation, and capital investment surged. Investors poured money into U.S. equities, confident in a business-friendly environment.
But as Caldwell cautioned, the current backdrop is not without challenges. Elevated valuations, softening macroeconomic data, and the reintroduction of Trump-era tariffs have tempered investor enthusiasm. In this higher-stakes environment, the market appears to be shifting from growth names to companies offering tangible value and consistent dividends.
Cboe Global Markets: The Infrastructure of Modern Finance
First on Caldwell’s radar is Cboe Global Markets. In an era of increasingly sophisticated trading, Cboe offers the plumbing that keeps the financial system running. The exchange operator provides trading venues for equities, options, and futures, with exclusive licenses to trade index options on the S&P 500, S&P 100, and S&P Select Sectors through 2032.
Caldwell praised Cboe’s innovation and product miniaturization strategies, which allow investors to hedge with precision. As volatility becomes an ever-present feature of markets, the ability to fine-tune hedging strategies gives Cboe a competitive edge.
In addition to its diverse product suite, Caldwell noted the company’s rigorous cost discipline. Its expense management history supports robust margins even when trading volumes fluctuate. For long-term investors looking for a pick-and-shovel play in the financial ecosystem, Cboe offers both defensive stability and exposure to market growth.
Amazon: A Retail Giant With Cloudy Skies and Clear Horizons
Amazon, the perennial tech juggernaut, remains a top pick despite a recent pullback of nearly 20 percent. Caldwell sees long-term value in the company’s retail business, which continues to benefit from margin expansion driven by automation and operational efficiencies. He also pointed to Amazon’s household and personal care product lines, which are gaining traction internationally. These sticky categories foster recurring revenue and boost consumer loyalty—an underrated aspect of Amazon’s sprawling empire.
On the cloud front, Caldwell acknowledged investor concerns over Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its pace of AI-related growth. But he believes that many have overreacted. AI’s promise may be uneven in the short term, but over time, AWS and other hyperscale providers will be crucial infrastructure players in the AI revolution. As AI workloads become more inference-driven, Caldwell expects AWS to see a reacceleration in growth.
Valuation-wise, Amazon trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30, down from a 12-month average of 37. For a company with dominant market positions and a relentless focus on innovation, Caldwell believes this represents a rare buying opportunity.
Costco: High Prices, High Value
The third pick, Costco, exemplifies the kind of company investors seek when times get tough. Known for its membership-based warehouse model, Costco provides customers with value-driven, bulk-sized offerings. Its 891 global warehouses, with 69 percent located in the U.S., ensure strong geographic diversification.
Caldwell praised Costco’s ability to preserve customer loyalty, even after membership fee hikes. Traffic and renewal rates are at record highs, signaling the company’s unmatched value proposition. During recent inflationary pressures, Costco managed to maintain tight margin control—proof of operational excellence and strategic pricing.
He also pointed out the company’s continued investments in technology and delivery infrastructure, which should help it maintain market share while expanding internationally. Though its forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at 50—admittedly high—it now aligns with the 12-month average following a 20 percent correction. To Caldwell, this makes Costco a premium stock at a rare discount.
Conclusion: Quality Over Hype in a Defensive Market
In a world of rising uncertainty and shifting monetary policy, Brendan Caldwell is leaning into high-quality names that can weather turbulence while offering compelling growth. Cboe Global Markets, Amazon, and Costco aren’t just familiar names—they’re pillars of modern commerce and finance.
Caldwell’s strategy underscores a broader trend: the pivot from speculative growth to resilient value. While headlines focus on macro fears, the real opportunity lies in understanding long-term fundamentals. For investors willing to look past short-term noise, Caldwell’s top picks offer a compelling roadmap for the months ahead.