Eric Nuttall’s Energy Picks: Built Like a Rig, Paying Like a Bank
Energy Titan Eric Nuttall Bets on Natural Gas and Cash-Flow Kings Amid Shifting Oil Dynamics
Eric Nuttall isn’t just bullish—he’s strategic. As partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, Nuttall continues to carve a reputation for bold energy sector plays that often defy conventional caution. His latest commentary, delivered on BNN Bloomberg, is a resounding statement of conviction in the face of a complex and shifting energy market.
At the heart of Nuttall’s thesis lies a belief that natural gas is entering a new era. Not just a rebound or a blip—but a structural bull market. His reasoning is clear: a significant uptick in domestic demand is driving this surge, fueled primarily by the rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and the growing need for power across North America. LNG Canada, set to begin operations soon, stands out as a major catalyst. Once online, it’s expected to shrink the current discount on Canadian gas from around $2 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) to closer to $1.10. That seemingly minor differential shift could dramatically widen margins and boost free cash flow for Canadian producers, repositioning them from discount players to margin machines.
Oil’s Short-Term Struggles vs. Long-Term Promise
While Nuttall’s natural gas stance is unquestionably optimistic, his take on oil is more tempered, at least in the short term. He forecasts oil prices trading between $50 and $60 per barrel over the next nine to twelve months—a range shaped by weakening demand, rising inventories, and continued friction in the global market. In his view, U.S. tariffs are beginning to bite, slowing global trade and weighing on oil consumption. Simultaneously, OPEC’s return of barrels to the market, spurred by quota cheating from Kazakhstan and Iraq, is exacerbating supply-side pressure. The implication is clear: without significant reductions in short-cycle U.S. shale production, the world will be staring down bloated inventories once again.
Yet, Nuttall isn’t sounding the death knell for oil—far from it. His medium-to-long-term view is decidedly bullish. He believes we are at the twilight of U.S. shale. The heady days of ever-growing American output are fading, as breakeven prices rise and drillers face exhaustion in their most productive plays. At $60 WTI or lower, he expects shale to falter. That decline, in turn, will help rebalance the market, especially as OPEC’s spare capacity tightens and non-OPEC production nears its peak over the next three to four years.
Expand Energy: A Natural Gas Giant with Upside
Among Nuttall’s top picks, Expand Energy stands out as a compelling bet on the future of U.S. natural gas. Listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker EXE, Expand is one of the few large-cap natural gas producers still offering scalable upside. The company is heavily exposed to the Haynesville formation, a prolific gas play that feeds directly into U.S. Gulf Coast LNG terminals. With global LNG demand expected to climb over the next decade, and limited pure-play exposure remaining in U.S. markets, Nuttall believes Expand is in a prime position to grow both production and valuation multiples.
It’s not just about current fundamentals—it’s about scarcity. Nuttall points out that there are few investable U.S. natural gas names left with the scale, asset quality, and balance sheet to attract institutional interest. That scarcity premium, when paired with growing LNG capacity, makes Expand a standout candidate for re-rating in the quarters ahead.
Nuvista: Montney Strength and Shareholder Yield
Nuvista Energy, trading on the TSX under NVA, is a Montney-focused oil and gas producer with a unique blend of growth and yield. The company plans to boost production by 33% over the next four years. But what really excites Nuttall is the runway—Nuvista holds 28 years of “stay flat” inventory, meaning it can maintain current output levels for nearly three decades without needing to chase high-risk exploration.
With oil prices at $60 to $70 WTI and gas hovering around $4 NYMEX, Nuvista can return 10 to 16 percent of its market cap annually to shareholders in the form of dividends. It’s that combination of stable output, generous yield, and takeover appeal that has Nuttall watching closely. He notes that with the recent spree of mergers and acquisitions in the Montney, Nuvista could fetch $18 to $20 per share if acquired today—a significant premium to its current valuation.
Tamarack Valley: Clearwater’s Quiet Powerhouse
The final pick in Nuttall’s trio is Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE TSX), which he believes remains materially undervalued despite outperforming expectations for several consecutive quarters. The company’s strength lies in its Clearwater asset base—particularly its waterflood initiatives that have proven highly successful in enhancing recovery and stabilizing output.
Tamarack trades at a free cash flow yield of 11% to 17% at $60 to $70 WTI, making it a cash machine in today’s environment. More impressively, the company boasts over 20 years of inventory at these levels, allowing for long-term production visibility. Nuttall’s view is that the market has yet to fully appreciate the asset quality and operational consistency Tamarack brings to the table. For investors seeking low-risk yield with built-in growth, Tamarack may be one of the best-kept secrets in Canadian energy.
Conclusion: Positioned for a New Energy Era
Eric Nuttall’s top picks are more than just stock tips—they’re a blueprint for navigating the current energy cycle. Whether it’s betting on the structural ascent of natural gas via Expand Energy, securing long-term Montney exposure through Nuvista, or capitalizing on Clearwater-driven free cash flow at Tamarack Valley, each name reflects a calculated thesis grounded in macro tailwinds, disciplined capital return, and operational depth.
With energy markets entering a new phase of volatility, constrained supply, and shifting global demand, Nuttall’s strategy cuts through the noise. He’s not chasing headlines—he’s building a portfolio that’s built to endure, profit, and lead.