Can Gold Really Hit $4,000 by 2026? BMO Thinks So
As markets reel from geopolitical shocks and portfolio chaos, gold is glittering again—BMO’s ETF head says this bull run is far from over.
Gold is surging again. And if you thought it was too late to jump in, think again.
BMO’s head of exchange-traded funds is sounding the alarm—not of caution, but of opportunity. Despite gold’s staggering rise to over US$3,300 an ounce in 2025, Bipan Rai is far from ready to write it off. In fact, he believes the yellow metal could be the portfolio lifeline investors are desperate for, especially as traditional asset strategies crumble under the weight of economic uncertainty.
The spike in gold prices—up more than 25 percent this year—has ignited a fresh wave of FOMO across global markets. And it’s not just retail investors who are piling in. Central banks are making record purchases, geopolitics are tilting dangerously toward conflict, and inflation is proving to be anything but transitory. Layer in growing doubts about the U.S. dollar’s dominance, and you’ve got the perfect storm for bullion.
Gold isn’t new to this role. For centuries, it’s been the financial world’s ultimate insurance policy. It generates no yield, pays no dividend, but in a world that feels increasingly unpredictable, its allure is undeniable. Gold doesn’t promise returns—it promises resilience. And right now, that’s what money managers are scrambling to buy.
Bipan Rai’s comments to Yahoo Finance Canada came with the kind of candid clarity that’s rare in a market buzzing with noise. “You could certainly make a case that gold, on a monthly basis, does look incredibly overbought here,” he said. But even with that technical caution, his fundamental take is unmistakably bullish.
His reasoning comes down to the structural shifts reshaping global finance. “There are palpable concerns with respect to whether or not the U.S., at least from an administrative perspective, is overusing sanctions,” Rai noted. In other words, the weaponization of the dollar is starting to backfire. Countries not aligned with Washington are looking for alternatives—fast. And what’s the go-to alternative when you’re fleeing dollar exposure? Gold.
China is a prime example. Its central bank has now added gold to its reserves for seven straight months, signaling a broader move among emerging markets to insulate themselves from Western financial influence. According to Metals Focus, central banks are projected to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold this year—just slightly below the record pace of 2024. When sovereign wealth moves, private capital tends to follow.
Meanwhile, Wall Street’s most tried-and-true formula—the 60/40 portfolio—is under siege. Normally, when stocks fall, bonds rise, offering a natural hedge. But in today’s world of stubborn inflation and rate volatility, those correlations are breaking down. This has created what Rai calls “nightmare scenarios” for portfolio managers, where both stocks and bonds drop in tandem.
That’s where gold comes in, once again, as the uncorrelated hero. When equities and fixed income turn into twin liabilities, investors turn to something tangible. Something with historical memory. Something shiny.
And the big banks agree. Goldman Sachs recently urged clients to up their gold allocation, citing the failure of bonds to act as a cushion against equity declines. In their view, gold is no longer just a hedge—it’s a necessity.
There’s another element driving the metal’s climb: fear. Not just fear of recession or inflation, but fear that the geopolitical order is fraying beyond repair. Trump’s renewed trade wars, ongoing tensions with China, and the grinding conflict in Ukraine have all amplified the demand for hard assets. Gold’s performance isn’t happening in a vacuum—it’s happening because people no longer trust the vacuum of fiat currency and financial guarantees.
When even the institutions that typically play it safe start ringing the gold bell, it’s time to take notice. RBC Capital Markets recently upgraded its year-end gold forecast to US$3,350 and sees it hitting US$3,600 by 2026. Capital Economics, another key voice in the market, predicts a new all-time high by next year. But Goldman Sachs? They’re going full throttle—calling for gold to smash through the US$4,000 mark by mid-2026.
To many, that might sound like froth. But if you look past the headlines and into the underlying fundamentals—de-dollarization, central bank accumulation, collapsing correlation in traditional portfolios, geopolitical drift—it doesn’t sound crazy. It sounds inevitable.
For all the market cycles, trend shifts, and algorithmic strategies, sometimes the answer is as old as money itself. Gold. Not because it’s exciting, but because in times like these, it’s essential.
Bipan Rai and the team at BMO aren’t waving pom-poms for precious metals. They’re reading the room. And the room, right now, is lined with uncertainty. Gold offers no promises, no yield, and no hype. But in a world teetering on the edge of economic, political, and strategic unknowns—it may just be the most honest asset we have left.
Conclusion
The gold rally is not just a reaction—it’s a reflection. A reflection of global anxiety, broken financial models, shifting power structures, and the quest for something real. Whether it hits $3,600, $4,000, or more, gold’s true value lies in what it represents: trust, stability, and survival. And in 2025, those may be the rarest commodities of all.