“That Deleveraging Is Done” — Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin’s Big Comeback Against Gold
Tom Lee sees fear easing but warns the market still has bruises to take before healing begins—Bitcoin, gold, and equities all stand at pivotal crossroads.
The markets woke up groggy again. Dow futures stumbled over 340 points. The S&P was bleeding more than 50. And gold? Up another $80. Bitcoin, surprisingly, popped nearly 3.5%. The vibe in the financial world feels less like panic and more like whiplash.
Enter Tom Lee, Head of Research and CIO at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Always sharp, always watching. According to Lee, while the worst of market fear may be in the rear-view mirror, the pain isn’t over. In other words: the storm has passed, but the cleanup’s just begun.
The Fear Is Fading — But The Fallout Isn’t
Lee makes a clear distinction between uncertainty and pain. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, hit its recent peak back on April 7. That moment, Lee argues, marked the high-water line for market anxiety. People were bracing for the worst, unsure whether the Fed would flinch, whether the economy would fall off a cliff, whether war or recession or inflation would win the day.
But since then, the market has started to metabolize the risk. Investors are no longer panicking; they’re just exhausted. Peak uncertainty may be behind us. But that doesn’t mean the damage is done. Economic consequences—slower growth, stretched consumers, cautious CEOs—are still rippling through the system.
Markets don’t crash when people are scared. They crash when people realize the fear was justified.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Battle of Belief
As traditional markets teeter, there’s been a surprising divergence between two of the most closely watched “alternative assets.” Gold has been on a tear, leaping toward all-time highs and brushing off every whisper of rate hikes and dollar strength. Bitcoin, by contrast, lagged early in the year, weighed down by institutional deleveraging and liquidity stress.
But now, Lee sees that tide turning. The forced selling is over. Institutions have stopped bleeding crypto positions just to raise cash. As a result, Bitcoin is starting to catch up. And if gold is signaling a global craving for non-dollar stores of value, Bitcoin may not be far behind.
The real kicker? Bitcoin’s previous all-time high is north of $110,000. According to Lee, we’re nowhere near ceiling territory yet. There’s plenty of runway if confidence keeps building.
Equities Aren’t Cheap—But They’re Resilient
Despite red futures and looming recession fears, Lee isn’t throwing in the towel on stocks. He points to a crucial reality: companies, especially in the U.S., are shockingly resilient. Earnings season will reveal the truth, of course, but there’s no denying that corporate America has weathered storms before—and often better than expected.
He also notes the market’s recent behavior. After dropping to 4,800 on the S&P, things stabilized—barely. There’s still a real risk we revisit those lows in the coming weeks. But Lee thinks there’s also potential for something markets love more than anything: a surprise.
The Wild Card: A Policy Shock That Lifts Spirits
In an environment saturated with bad news, one unexpected move could flip sentiment. Lee refers to this as a “positive policy shock.” It could come in many forms—a reduction in tariffs, a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade tensions, or perhaps a shift in the Fed’s tone.
Markets thrive on surprises, especially the kind that hint at smoother seas ahead. Lee isn’t saying such a shock is guaranteed. But in this climate, even the possibility can be a bullish undercurrent.
Pain vs. Panic: Know the Difference
Tom Lee’s message is nuanced—but powerful. He’s not calling for an all-clear. Instead, he’s marking a transition. The panic phase is behind us. That’s what the VIX peak told us. But the pain phase? That’s more insidious. It plays out slowly. It shows up in earnings misses, reduced capex, layoffs, and cautious forward guidance. It’s when the adrenaline wears off and we’re left with bruises.
Still, even in that phase, there’s opportunity. If you know where to look.
The Granny Shot ETF: Playing the Long Game
Lee also took a victory lap of sorts—his firm’s “Granny Shot” ETF, which recently hit $1 billion in assets, was ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. The name is quirky, but the strategy is serious. The idea is simple: identify powerful long-term investment themes, then pick stocks that are tied to multiple of them.
These are stocks with structural tailwinds—think cybersecurity, millennial spending, healthcare innovation. The result? A portfolio of resilient names that can weather volatility better than most. They may not soar every day, but they rarely collapse.
And in markets like this, durability is the name of the game.
Final Thoughts: This Isn’t the Crash—It’s the Compression
Tom Lee’s interview serves as a grounding force in a dizzying news cycle. No, we’re not in full-blown crisis mode anymore. But yes, the aftershocks are still coming. The market isn't crashing—it’s compressing. The pressure is building, the oxygen is thin, but for those who can hold their breath and stick to the fundamentals, the path forward might just be worth it.
There’s no guarantee of a clean rebound. But maybe, just maybe, we’re nearing a bottom—not in price, but in sentiment.