Major cannabis decision in South Dakota is imminent
Mount Rushmore State will vote on new marijuana legislation in November.
It is expected that there will be a number of rapidly growing trends this decade, including cloud computing, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity. But don't sleep on marijuana. After estimated global sales of $ 10.9 billion in 2018, legal cannabis sales are expected to be between $ 50 billion and $ 200 billion a year by 2030, according to various Wall Street estimates. Yes, that's quite a wide range, but that's to be expected from an industry that has never been legalized in this day and age and that has tens of billions of dollars in activity behind the scenes. It's also an industry that could soon get a lot bigger in the United States. Currently, two-thirds of all states have given the go-ahead to medical marijuana, with 11 of those states also allowing adult weed consumption and / or retail sales. But in less than a month, those numbers could be higher. In the November 3rd election, five states with cannabis policies will be on their respective ballot papers. However, none will be more unique than what Mount Rushmore state presents to its residents. Mount Rushmore State is four weeks away from making cannabis history. While we've seen some unlikely election campaigns, South Dakota is about to do something no state has tried before: It seeks to legalize medical and recreational marijuana at the same time, albeit with two separate campaigns. First, Mount Rushmore State voters must vote in favor of Measure 26, which would create a medical marijuana industry in the state for patients with predefined, debilitating medical conditions. The move would allow eligible patients to own up to three ounces of cannabis and grow at least three cannabis plants in their place of residence as prescribed by a doctor. Initially, Measure 26 would add severe nausea, seizures, and severe or persistent muscle spasms to the list of eligible disabling diseases. However, the South Dakota Department of Health would be free to add to the list of eligible diseases once the measure is passed. Second, the South Dakotans will also vote on Amendment A, which would legalize recreational marijuana across the state. Pretty much in line with what we've seen in other legal adult states, South Dakota will introduce a legal age of consumption and possession of 21 and (more specifically the state) a 15% tax rate on weed sales. The interesting thing about the recreational legalization measure is that it does not introduce a medical marijuana program and does not have any hemp guidelines in the state. This means that the South Dakota state legislature would be responsible for establishing the rules and regulations for a medical cannabis and hemp industry by April 1, 2022. Given that there is no precedent for a state moving from a totally illegal to a legal recreational state, I am not sure if Amendment A will get through. But medical marijuana approval is high (pardon the pun), which makes Measure 26 quite likely to pass. Four more states will join South Dakota on election day In addition to South Dakota, four other states will be vying for the green card. The only currently illegal state (other than South Dakota) trying to legalize medical marijuana is Mississippi. The Magnolia State has a two-part cannabis question on its ballot paper that requires residents to first assess their palatability for medical marijuana and then decide what type of medical cannabis program they prefer. Initiative 65 is a more traditional program that allows doctors to prescribe cannabis under 20 conditions. Meanwhile, Initiative 65A limits medical marijuana smoking to patients with terminal diseases and provides increased government oversight. The other three states - New Jersey, Arizona, and Montana - all vote on recreational pot initiatives. New Jersey was the first state to put a measure on the ballot in the November election. Polls have shown that Public Question 1 has a good chance of passing the election. As a reminder, the New Jersey Legislature was on the verge of waving the green flag on recreational weeds in early 2019, but was eventually disappointed with social action. Instead, residents will be able to decide the fate of the Garden State in just over four weeks. Much like New Jersey, Arizona appears to have above-average odds of legalizing adult cannabis. Arizona narrowly voted in November 2016 (48.7% yes-votes) against Proposition 205, which would have legalized recreational weed in Grand Canyon State. History has shown that the second time the appeal lies when it comes to measures to legalize recreational consumption. The Montanans will also vote on two measures that both work towards the same goal. Montana Cl-118, if passed, would allow the state's constitution to be amended by making 21 the legal age to buy, use, and possess cannabis. Then there is I-190, the actual adult pot consumption measure which, if passed, would impose a 20% tax rate. Of the three votes that are only for recreational activities, Montana is likely to be the most controversial. Multistate operators in the US should have a "Field Day". No matter what happens to the November 3rd presidency, there is a very good chance that the number of legalized recreational and / or medical marijuana states will increase. With the federal government maintaining a "hands-off" approach to regulation (i.e. allowing states to regulate their own top industries), US multistate operators (MSO) appear poised to have a "field day" in 2021 to have. In particular, some of the largest publicly traded MSOs are in great shape to benefit from new legalizations and ongoing organic expansion in legalized states. For example, Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF) recently completed the acquisition of Grassroots, bringing the number of operational retail locations to 93 and increasing its presence to 23 states. Curaleaf has an existing presence in New Jersey and appears to be well on its way to reaching $ 1 billion in annual sales by 2021. Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF) will also see an increase in sales, but not just because of the newly legalized states. Although Green Thumb is based in New Jersey, it is Nevada and Illinois that can be even more lucrative markets from an organic growth perspective. Green Thumb currently has 48 open pharmacies but has enough licenses to double that number.