Madden’s Market Titans: Tourmaline, JPMorgan, Costco.
A deep dive into Brian Madden’s top stock picks for summer 2025: energy strength, financial dominance, and retail resilience.
As global headlines shift and markets recalibrate, Brian Madden, Chief Investment Officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel, isn’t just watching the North American equity markets — he’s positioning for impact. With macroeconomic clouds still drifting in from Washington to the Middle East, Madden’s lens remains razor-focused on resilience, scale, and strategic expansion. His top stock picks reflect a balance of domestic energy muscle, global banking firepower, and unstoppable consumer loyalty.
North American equities have staged a confident rebound following a volatile spring, driven by a walk-back in the U.S.’s previously aggressive tariff stance and renewed legislative momentum around the country’s federal budget. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain in the background, they’ve receded far enough to remove the immediate fear premium that had gripped oil markets. Madden sees this shift as more than just a relief rally. It’s a window to rotate into fundamentally strong names while still harvesting gains from areas that saw exaggerated price lifts from global uncertainty.
Tourmaline Oil: Dominance in Canadian Natural Gas
Tourmaline Oil isn’t just another name in the energy space. It’s the backbone of Canada’s gas output, responsible for a staggering 13 percent of the country’s total production. With drilling and completion techniques that mirror a precision manufacturing model and a 21 percent stake in Topaz Energy to directly control its midstream gas processing, Tourmaline turns geology into cash flow. What makes it even more appealing now is its diversified delivery points that tap premium markets in the U.S. and beyond, far from the price limitations of the AECO hub.
The real catalyst on the horizon is LNG Canada’s long-awaited terminal in Kitimat. After more than a decade and $40 billion in investment, its first export shipments could ignite a new chapter for the Canadian gas sector. The two billion cubic feet per day of outbound demand would create a meaningful shift in the supply-demand equation. For Tourmaline, already cash-generative and shareholder-friendly, this is a tide that could lift everything higher. Madden appreciates the blend of operational mastery and shareholder focus, with the company returning free cash flow through both regular and special dividends.
JPMorgan Chase: Global Scale, Unmatched Efficiency
Shifting from gas wells to banking halls, Madden’s second pick is JPMorgan Chase. When you talk about global banks, JPMorgan doesn’t just participate — it dominates. From net interest margins to efficiency ratios, it outpaces domestic and international peers alike. In deposit market share and credit card transactions, JPMorgan sits on top of the U.S. banking hierarchy. It’s also the heavyweight champion in investment banking, leading in debt and equity fee pools, secondary trading volume, and treasury services.
Madden sees JPMorgan not just as a best-in-class bank, but as the kind of institution that thrives in a scale-driven financial world. With regional and community banks losing relevance, JPMorgan absorbs their customers and grows organically. Despite its scale, the bank still retains discipline, paying out just 25 percent of its earnings as dividends. That results in a modest two percent yield, lower than Canadian banks, but reflective of its reinvestment prowess. Importantly, this isn’t just a value play — it’s a growth story too. Over the past ten years, JPMorgan has posted 13 percent compound annual growth in both earnings and dividends. In an era when most banks struggle to beat the Canadian Big Six, JPMorgan has not only competed but outperformed.
Costco Wholesale: A Retail Powerhouse Built on Loyalty
Then there’s Costco — Madden’s consumer powerhouse pick. The third-largest retailer in the world, Costco isn’t just selling goods, it’s built a membership-driven model that breeds loyalty and predictability. With over 900 stores across the globe and more than 80 million paying members, Costco’s business isn’t about flashy promotions. It’s about consistent, efficient, value-packed operations. Membership renewal sits at a jaw-dropping 93 percent, even as prices go up. Why? Because Costco customers don’t just shop — they believe in the model.
The inventory strategy is tight, with just 4,000 items including the popular Kirkland brand. That lean approach, combined with incredible supply chain management and rapid inventory turns, allows Costco to offer low prices without squeezing its margins. Gross margins remain healthy at 11 percent, while returns on equity stay north of 30 percent. That kind of financial consistency is rare in retail. It gets even more impressive when you consider Costco’s decade-long compound sales growth of 9 percent and 13 percent earnings growth. The stock itself, often considered expensive on a P/E basis, has delivered a phenomenal 17.5 percent compound annual return since its IPO in 1985.
Costco’s story is about more than bricks and mortar. Its growing e-commerce presence has added a new leg to the business, and store expansions continue with discipline and purpose. In Madden’s eyes, Costco is the kind of company that not only survives disruptions in retail but absorbs them and turns them into opportunity.
Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy Watch
Looking ahead, Madden remains cautious but not fearful. He notes that some key macro indicators are likely to deteriorate in the near term, keeping the U.S. Federal Reserve in a holding pattern on interest rate cuts. Inflation remains sticky, in part due to lingering tariff effects and normal pricing pressures. The political climate, while less chaotic than earlier this year, still carries a sense of ambiguity. Business confidence could remain muted, especially with Section 899 and unresolved tariff issues looming in the background.
Hiring, capital spending, and big-ticket M&A activity may pause until more policy clarity emerges. But amid the noise, investors like Madden are quietly stacking up best-in-class assets — those that can take a punch and still deliver results. Tourmaline, JPMorgan, and Costco aren’t just resilient names. They’re strategic anchors in a world still figuring out which way the wind is blowing.